SRREN Policy Makers Guide

Selected extracts from the Special Report on Renewable Energy sources policy makers summary.

The Message: The scenarios used to achieve CO₂ stabilization may be achieved using renewable energy at a cost of 1% Global GDP per year.

I have tried to distill what I think are some of the most important statements from the 26 page summary, and to include some of the graphics not published in mainstream media. See the original (link above) for detailed explanations.

Integrating sustainable development with renewable energy adoption is a theme of the paper which I have highlighted.

The full report will be out at the end of the month.

On a global basis, it is estimated that Renewable Energy (RE) accounted for 12.9% of the total 492 Exajoules (EJ) of primary energy supply in 2008 (Box SPM.2) (Figure SPM.2). The largest RE contributor was biomass (10.2%), with the majority (roughly 60%) being traditional biomass used in cooking and eating applications in developing countries but with rapidly increasing use of modern biomass as well.

Traditional biomass (17%), modern biomass (8%), solar thermal and geothermal energy (2%) together fuelled 27% of the total global demand for heat.

Deployment of RE has been increasing rapidly in recent years (Figure SPM.3). Various types of government policies, the declining cost of many RE technologies, changes in the prices of fossil fuels, an increase of energy demand and other factors have encouraged the continuing increase in the use of RE.

Despite global financial challenges, RE capacity continued to grow rapidly in 2009 compared to the cumulative installed capacity from the previous year, including: wind power (32% increase, 38 Gigawatts (GW) added), hydropower (3%, 31 GW added), grid-connected photovoltaics (53%, 7.5 GW added), geothermal power (4%, 0.4 GW added), and solar hot water/heating (21%, 31 GWth added).

Of the approximate 300 GW of new electricity generating capacity added globally over the two year period from 2008 to 2009, 140 GW came from RE additions.

The use of decentralized RE (excluding traditional biomass) in meeting rural energy needs at the household or village level has also increased, including hydropower stations, various modern biomass options, PV, wind or hybrid systems that combine multiple technologies.

The global technical potential of RE sources will not limit continued growth in the use of RE. A wide range of estimates are provided in the literature, but studies have consistently found that the total global technical potential for RE is substantially higher than global energy demand. The technical potential for solar energy is the highest among the RE sources, but substantial technical potential exists for all six RE sources. Even in regions with relatively low levels of technical potential for any individual RE source, there are typically significant opportunities for increased deployment compared to current levels.

In the longer term and at higher deployment levels, however, technical potentials indicate a limit to the contribution of some individual RE technologies. Factors such as sustainability concerns, public acceptance, system integration and infrastructure constraints, or economic factors may also limit deployment of renewable energy technologies.

The levelized cost of energy for many RE technologies is currently higher than existing energy prices, though in various settings RE is already economically competitive. Ranges of recent levelized costs of energy for selected commercially available RE technologies are wide, depending
on a number of factors including, but not limited to, technology characteristics, regional variations in cost and performance, and differing discount rates. Some RE technologies are broadly competitive with existing market energy prices. Many of the other RE technologies can provide competitive energy services in certain circumstances, for example, in regions with favourable resource conditions or that lack the
infrastructure for other low-cost energy supplies.

Monetizing the external costs of energy supply would improve the relative competitiveness of RE. The same applies if market prices increase due to other reasons.

The cost of most RE technologies has declined and additional expected technical advances would result in further cost reductions. Significant advances in RE technologies and associated long-term cost reductions have been demonstrated over the last decades, though periods of rising prices have sometimes been experienced (due to, for example, increasing demand for RE in excess of available supply).

As infrastructure and energy systems develop, in spite of the complexities, there are few, if any, fundamental technological limits to integrating a portfolio of RE technologies to meet a majority share of total energy demand in locations where suitable RE resources exist or can be supplied. However, the actual rate of integration and the resulting shares of RE will be influenced by factors, such as costs, policies, environmental issues and social aspects.

Renewable energy and sustainable development

Historically, economic development has been strongly correlated with increasing energy use and growth of GHG emissions and RE can help decouple that correlation, contributing to sustainable development (SD). Though the exact contribution of RE to SD has to be evaluated in a country specific context, RE offers the opportunity to contribute to social and economic development, energy access, secure energy supply, climate change mitigation, and the reduction of negative environmental and health impacts. Providing access to modern energy services would support the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals.

- RE can contribute to social and economic development.

- RE can help accelerate access to energy, particularly for the 1.4 billion people without access to electricity and the additional 1.3 billion using traditional biomass.

- RE options can contribute to a more secure energy supply, although specific challenges to integration must be considered.

- In addition to reduced GHG emissions, RE technologies can provide other important environmental benefits.

o Lifecycle assessments (LCA) for electricity generation indicate that GHG emissions from RE technologies are, in general, significantly lower than those associated with fossil fuel options, and in a range of conditions, less than fossil fuels employing CCS.

o Most current bioenergy systems, including liquid biofuels, result in GHG emission reductions, and most biofuels produced through new processes (also called advanced biofuels or next generation biofuels) could provide higher GHG mitigation.

o The sustainability of bioenergy, in particular in terms of life cycle GHG emissions, is influenced by land and biomass resource management practices. Proper governance of land use, zoning, and choice of biomass production systems are key considerations for policy makers.

o RE technologies, in particular non-combustion based options, can offer benefits with respect to air pollution and related health concerns.

o Water availability could influence choice of RE technology. Conventional water cooled thermal power plants may be especially vulnerable to conditions of water scarcity and climate change.

 

From this point on the report is uses projections based on scenarios.

Mitigation potentials and costs

A significant increase in the deployment of RE by 2030, 2050 and beyond is indicated in the majority of the 164 scenarios reviewed in this Special Report11. In 2008, total RE production was roughly 64 EJ/yr (12.9% of total primary energy supply) with more than 30 EJ/yr of this being traditional biomass. More than 50% of the scenarios project levels of RE deployment in 2050 of more than 173 EJ/yr reaching up to over 400 EJ/yr in some cases.

More than half of the scenarios show a contribution from RE in excess of a 17% share of primary energy supply in 2030 rising to more than 27% in 2050. The scenarios with the highest RE shares reach approximately 43% in 2030 and 77% in 2050.

RE can be expected to expand even under baseline scenarios. Most baseline scenarios show RE deployments significantly above the 2008 level of 64 EJ/yr and up to 120 EJ/yr by 2030. By 2050 many baseline scenarios reach RE deployment levels of more than 100 EJ/yr and in some cases up to about 250 EJ/yr.

The scenario review in this Special Report indicates that RE has a large potential to mitigate GHG emissions. Four illustrative scenarios span a range of global cumulative CO2 savings between 2010 and 2050 from about 220 to 560 Gt CO₂ compared to about 1530 Gt cumulative fossil and industrial CO₂ emissions in the IEA World Energy Outlook 2009 Reference scenario during the same period.

Scenarios do not indicate an obvious single dominant RE technology at a global level; in addition, the global overall technical potentials do not constrain the future contribution of RE. Although the contribution of RE technologies varies across scenarios, modern biomass, wind and direct solar commonly make up the largest contributions of RE technologies to the energy system by 2050.

Individual studies indicate that if RE deployment is limited, mitigation costs increase and low GHG stabilization concentrations may not be achieved.

A transition to a low-GHG economy with higher shares of RE would imply increasing investments in technologies and infrastructure. The four illustrative scenarios analyzed in detail in this Special Report estimate global cumulative RE investments (in the power generation sector
only) ranging from USD2005 1,360 to 5,100 billion for the decade 2011 to 2020, and from USD2005 1,490 to 7,180 billion for the decade 2021 to 2030.

Increasing the installed capacity of RE power plants will reduce the amount of fossil and nuclear fuels that otherwise would be needed in order to meet a given electricity demand.

The annual averages of these investment needs are all smaller than 1% of the world GDP.

Policy, implementation and financing

Barriers to RE deployment include:
- institutional and policy barriers related to existing industry, infrastructure and regulation of the energy system;
- market failures, including non-internalized environmental and health costs, where applicable.
- lack of general information and access to data relevant to the deployment of RE and lack of technical and knowledge capacity; and
- barriers related to societal and personal values and affecting the perception and acceptance of RE technologies.

Although not explicitly stated in this summary, converting the traditional biomass faction of current energy production to some combination of modern biomass, solar, wind (etc) seems to be a priority for several reasons.  Obviously to lower the GHG emissions, but also to reduce the health effects of particulate smoke and increase the transfer of technology to developing countries as part of the millennium development goals. As the populations using traditional biomass are frequently not connected to a centralized system, that objection/barrier is not a consideration in the implementation cost for adopting decentralized RE approaches. Obviously, nuclear is not an option for these people (numbering some 1.4 billion - see above).

Energy Easter Eggs

For those not away enjoying a little holiday here are some Easter energy links.  I make no particular recommendations they just look interesting. There is no guarantee on the links, these things tend to expire after 3 months or so (or earlier). Most of these titles have been published in the last few years. The reviews are clipped from the site where I found the links – could be from Amazon.

 

Nuclear Energy   Link 1          Link 2	In order to understand the contribution that nuclear power makes today and its potential for the future, one must appreciate the various branches of physics, engineering, mathematics, economics, and the environment, as well as the way that power is supplied to the grid. It also helps to apply the same ideas and standards to the evaluation of competing technologies. Neither an endorsement nor a condemnation of nuclear power, "Nuclear Energy" provides objective information that is accessible - assuming only a modest knowledge of high school algebra on the part of the reader - and broad in scope.
Double or Quits: The Future of Civil Nuclear Energy   Link 1          Link 2	This text, the culmination of a two-year study, provides a dispassionate and objective assessment of the major disputes on the future role of this controversial fuel. Decision makers and their advisers, as well as proponents and opponents of the fuel, should find that this book provides clarification of the main issues influencing the future of nuclear energy: relative economics, public perceptions and the process of decision making, nuclear research and development, waste management, reprocessing and proliferation, nuclear safety and nuclear power and the Kyoto Protocol.
Safety and Security of Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel Storage Link 1          Link 2	The information provided in this book examines the risks of terrorist attacks using these materials for a radiological dispersal device. "Safety and Security of Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel" is an unclassified public summary of a more detailed classified book.  A propagating fire in a pool could release large amounts of radioactive material, but rearranging spent fuel in the pool during storage and providing emergency water spray systems would reduce the likelihood of a propagating fire even under severe damage conditions.  Although dry casks have advantages over cooling pools, pools are necessary at all operating nuclear power plants to store at least the recently discharged fuel.
Solar Energy: Renewable Energy and the Environment     Link 1	Covers solar energy resources, thermal and photovoltaic systems, and the economics involved in using solar energy. It provides background theory on solar energy as well as useful technical information for implementing solar energy applications. The book details the strengths, weaknesses, and applications of solar power generation technologies. It discusses the design and implementation of often-overlooked solar technologies, such as solar water pumping, distillation, detoxification, refrigeration, and village power. The text also examines photovoltaic power and how it is best suited for remote-site applications with small to moderate power requirements. Includes  real-world case studies, and lessons learned from technical failures.
Harnessing Renewable Energy in Electric Power Systems Link 1          Link 2	Drawing on both economic theory and the experiences of the United States and EU member states, Harnessing Renewable Energy addresses the key questions surrounding renewable energy policies. How appropriate is the focus on renewable power as a primary tool for reducing greenhouse gas emissions? If renewable energy is given specific support, what form should that support take? What are the implications for power markets if renewable generation is widely adopted? Thorough and well-evidenced, this book will be of interest to a broad range of policymakers, the electric power industry, and economists who study energy and environmental issues.
Solar Energy Engineering: Processes and Systems   Link 1          Link 2	The range of solar cells spans different materials and different structures in the quest to extract maximum power from the device while keeping the cost to a minimum. Devices with efficiency exceeding 30% have been demonstrated in the laboratory. The book includes all areas of solar energy engineering. All subjects are presented from the fundamental level to the highest level of current research. The book includes subjects such as energy related environmental problems, solar collectors, solar water heating, solar space heating and cooling, industrial process heat, solar desalination, photovoltaics, solar thermal power systems and modelling of solar systems including the use of artificial intelligence systems in solar energy systems modelling and performance prediction.
Wind Energy Engineering   Link 1          Link 2	Comprehensive details on effectively using wind energy as a viable and economical energy source. Featuring a the book covers physics, meteorology, aerodynamics, wind measurement, wind turbine specifications, electricity, and integration with the grid. Filled with diagrams, tables, charts, graphs, and statistics, this is a definitive reference to current and future developments in wind energy. The business of wind energy worldwide Wind energy basics Meteorological properties of wind and air Advanced topics in resource assessment, including wake, losses, and uncertainty Wind turbine components Deploying wind turbines in the grid Environmental impacts Financial modeling, planning, and execution
Wind Energy Explained: Theory, Design and Application Link 1	2nd Edition Text book includes up-to-date data, diagrams, illustrations and thorough new material on: the fundamentals of wind turbine aerodynamics wind turbine testing and modeling wind turbine design standards offshore wind energy special purpose applications, such as energy storage and fuel production. This book offers a complete examination of one of the most promising sources of renewable energy and is a great introduction to this cross-disciplinary field for practicing engineers.
Renewable Energy, 4th Ed: Physics, Engineering, Environmental Impacts, Economics & Planning Link 1          Link 2	A true shelf reference, providing a thorough overview of the entire renewable energy sphere, while still functioning as a go-to information source for professionals and students when they need answers about a specific technical issue.  Structured around three parts in order to assist readers in focusing on the issues that impact them the most for a given project or question. PART I covers the basic scientific principles behind all major renewable energy resources, such as solar, wind and biomass. PART II provides in-depth information about how these raw renewable sources can actually be converted into useful forms, transmitted into the grid and stored for future utilization. PART III undertakes the aspects of energy planning, environmental impacts and socio-economic issues on regional and global levels.
Renewable Energy Cannot Sustain a Consumer Society Link 1          Link 2	It is widely assumed that our consumer society can move from   using fossil fuels to using renewable energy sources while maintaining the   high levels of energy use to which we have become accustomed. This book   details the reasons why this almost unquestioned assumption is seriously   mistaken.  Chapters on wind, photovoltaic and solar thermal sources argue that these   are not able to meet present electricity demands, let alone future demands.   The   planet's capacity to produce biomass is far below what would be required to  meet the demand for liquid fuel.   Chapter 6 explains why it is not likely that there will ever be a hydrogen   economy. Chapter 9 explains why nuclear energy is not the answer.  The discussion is then extended beyond energy to deal with the ways in   which our consumer society is grossly unsustainable and unjust.

Just as a footnote, a search at Amazon for Molten Salt Reactor suggests that while this design is promoted as 'inherently safe', the required engineering talent to build and operate them is probably very thin. The few texts on this topic appear to be at least 20-30 (or more) years old. This suggests that, in spite of the scientific research this complex technology is very immature. By the time the first commercial prototype reactor is built 10 - 20 years may have passed. To go any faster would require the "learning by doing" approach adopted at Fukushima.
Also read the interesting perspective of Kurt Cobb: The Nuclear Industry's Wrong Turn.

Wind ups and downs

Two stories from The Mercury in Tasmania. The first about a proposed expansion of alternative energy generation on King Island, the second on an under performing wind farm.

Green power tested on island
The Mercury, December 09, 2010

Tasmanian Premier David Bartlett and Greens leader and Alternative Energy Minister ...launched a $45 million renewable energy project on King Island yesterday.

The $30 million election promise from the Tasmanian Government, aided by $15 million from the Commonwealth, aims for renewable sources covering two thirds of the island's energy needs by late next year, reducing the reliance on diesel generators.

The experiment will also provide Hydro Tasmania with experience that may be used in other isolated small communities around the world without access to mainstream grid power.
...
Every home and business on King Island, including its two dominant industries, the abattoir and the cheese factory, will have smart-grid technology that offers information and choices about best and cheapest times to use electricity.

Hydro Tasmania has also formed a joint venture with technology company CBD Energy to test a new method of long-term storage of electricity.

Mr McKim sees the island of 1600 residents as the ideal laboratory, where renewable energy ideas and technology can be commercially tested on a small scale.

"This project will secure King Island's reputation as a clean and green fine food producer, attract further investment and lower the cost of living through reduced power prices," Mr McKim said.

The proposed system will use an energy storage unit from RAPS (details on the website are lacking, other than it comes as a container sized module) and Vanadium Redox Batteries.

Wind fails to turn a profit
The Mercury, December 01, 2010

A parliamentary committee scrutinising the operations of Hydro Tasmania was told yesterday that Hydro's wind-farm business, Roaring 40s, had run at a loss for the past five years because there had not been enough wind.

Hydro Tasmania's new chief executive Roy Adair said he hoped the wind-farm subsidiary would break even this year.

But he conceded one of the major problems had been that winds at its major wind farm at Woolnorth, on Tasmania's far northwest tip been "down against expectations".

Mr Adair said early evaluation of the Woolnorth wind-farm site in 2000 had predicted wind speeds, and therefore power production, would be 8 to 14 per cent higher than had been recorded.

He said with "more realistic estimates of generation productivity", profits could now be achieved.

Liberal energy spokesman Peter Gutwein said it was not good enough that Roaring 40s had never returned a profit for its owners, the Tasmanian public, and lost nearly $13 million last financial year.

Mr Gutwein said Hydro and the Government have some serious questions to answer after revelations more wind-power generation had been forecast than had resulted, costing Tasmanian taxpayers millions of dollars.

Greens energy spokesman Kim Booth agreed that it looked like Hydro Tasmania had "got its modelling wrong" on Woolnorth.