An iron curtain for global development?

Environmental Science and Technology has an interesting paper that explores iron use and stocks in developed and developing countries.

The paper looks at iron, one of the essential enabling materials for economic development, from  both an energy and therefore greenhouse gas perspective, and explores the possibility of depletion should all countries attempt to reach the same level of iron use as developed countries. Luckily, the data suggests that developed countries have or will reach a plateau (on a per capita basis) of ~10 tonnes. However should all countries aspire to this goal then known global iron stocks are insufficient.

Developed countries now have enough processed  iron stocks in existing infrastructure that they are able to meet a large portion of present iron demand by recycling the existing stock.

Africa, as a continent, is out of luck. The map below shows that the continent does not have enough reserves to use iron to the same per capita levels as developed countries, and it has not accumulated sufficient stocks to grow or maintain economic activity at the levels of developed nations.

Patterns of Iron Use in Societal Evolution

Daniel B. Moller, Tao Wang, and Benjamin Duval

Environ. Sci. Technol., 2011, 45 (1), pp 182–188

Abstract

A dynamic material flow model was used to analyze the patterns of iron stocks in use for six industrialized countries. The contemporary iron stock in the remaining countries was estimated assuming that they follow a similar pattern of iron stock per economic activity. Iron stocks have reached a plateau of about 8−12 tons per capita in the United States, France, and the United Kingdom, but not yet in Japan, Canada, and Australia. The global average iron stock was determined to be 2.7 tons per capita. An increase to a level of 10 tons over the next decades would deplete about the currently identified reserves. A subsequent saturation would open a long-term potential to dramatically shift resource use from primary to secondary sources. The observed saturation pattern implies that developing countries with rapidly growing stocks have a lower potential for recycling domestic scrap and hence for greenhouse gas emissions saving than industrialized countries, a fact that has not been addressed sufficiently in the climate change debate.

 

The massive growth of global material use over the past years, particularly due to the rise of emerging market economies, has revived questions about the long-term prospects and sustainability of resource use and the possibilities to reduce energy use and to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions associated with their production. The iron and steel industry, for example, accounts for about 6% of global final energy use and about 6−7% of global anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. An effective way to reduce resource depletion, waste generation, energy use, and environmental impacts associated with resource use is to reuse products or components or to recycle scrap. Efforts to reduce these impacts in the medium- and long-term should therefore be informed by models that are capable of explaining and anticipating resource use and scrap availability.

Traditional resource models and are often based on the Environmental Kuznets curve (EKC), which hypothesizes that the relationship between per-capita income and environmental indicators has an inverted U-shape. Applied to resources, the hypothesis implies that the intensity of resource use (IU)—defined as the ratio of physical material use per income—grows rapidly in initial stages of industrialization, but eventually falls as income rises further.

The limitations of EKC-based resource models have been discussed widely and include the following: (i) EKC models are based on statistical correlation, lacking a systems perspective capable of explaining the mechanisms that shape the IU and other important variables in resource cycles, such as scrap flows or mine production; (ii) they implicitly assume that resource cycles are driven by production (flow from process 7 to process 8 in Figure 1) and tend to neglect the stocks of different service-providing product categories; (iii) they lack robustness, because IU is an abstract ratio of two flow variables that tends to fluctuate…

We propose here an alternative based on patterns of in-use stock evolution.

Iron is by far the most important metal used by man in terms of quantity and environmental impact. The trend in raw steel production over the past decades (Figure 2) shows two important phenomena: (i) industrialized countries experienced a similar pattern—a strong growth, followed by a slack (with different distinctness) and stabilization on a high level; (ii) the current level of steel production per capita varies by a factor of 4−5 among the countries shown here (U.K. ca. 200 kg/a, Japan ca. 900 kg/a).

A recent study demonstrates that the per-capita iron stock in use in the U.S. … reached a plateau around 1980.

Fig 2 (reproduced from ES&T) Crude steel production 1900−2008: total production (top) and production per capita (bottom).

ACFB = Australia+Canada+France+United Kingdom; metric tons.

[Is] this apparent saturation … a transient phenomenon limited to the U.S., or [does] it [reveal] a more fundamental pattern of iron use in the path of a country’s development?

This implies the hypothesis that per-capita iron stocks in use indicate the level of industrialization:

they are negligible in agrarian societies,

they increase with industrialization, and

they remain on constant, high levels during transitions from industrialized to information or service-based economies.

Should this iron saturation hypothesis be supported by further research, patterns of iron stock evolution observed in industrialized countries could be used as benchmarks for emerging market economies and thereby provide a more solid basis to inform policies on long-term steel demand, scrap generation, and energy demand and emissions related to their production.

Fig 3. (reproduced from ES&T) Per capita iron stocks in use versus per capita GDP PPP.

The decomposition of the total iron stock indicates further similarities: all of the investigated countries employ most of the iron in Construction, followed by Machinery and Appliances, Transportation, and Others. Furthermore, the per-capita iron stocks are fairly similar for Machinery and Appliances (from 2 tons in France to 3 tons in Canada), Transportation (from 1 ton in U.K. to 2 tons in U.S.), and Others (from 0.3 to 0.6). However, there are large differences in the amount of iron employed in Construction (from 2.5 tons in France to 9−10 tons in Japan).

There are some interesting differences noted by the authors.

France reached saturation in per capita iron use in 60 years whereas Japan reached the same level of iron use in 20. Smaller countries tend to use less iron per capita than larger countries, but Japan uses significantly more. The authors speculate on the increased use being due to the earthquake prone nature of the country, the increased use of high rise construction and the hot humid climate. Both Canada and Australia have not reached per capita saturation and deploy more per capita than the UK and France (Canada more than the US). This may be due to the recent growth in  mining, processing, and transportation of ores and materials for export. Iron stocks in use tend to start growing at per capita incomes of $US1000 - $4000.

Global iron stocks in the ground (reserves) are estimated to be 79 Gt or 12 t/cap  (Figure 5 top). The largest iron stocks in reserves are found in Brazil (16 Gt), Russia (14 Gt), Ukraine (9 Gt), Australia (9 Gt), and China (7 Gt). In terms of per capita iron stocks in reserves, Australia (440 t/cap) leads before Sweden (240 t/cap), Kazakhstan (220 t/cap), and Ukraine (190 t/cap). Although China and India have substantial iron reserves in absolute terms, their large population leads to small per capita reserves (China 5 t/cap and India 4 t/cap).

In contrast, the global iron stocks in use have reached about 18 Gt or 2.7 t/cap, which is about 23% of the amount of the global reserves (Figure 5 bottom). The largest absolute in-use iron stocks are found in the U.S. (3.2 Gt), followed by China (2.2 Gt), Japan (1.7 Gt), Germany (0.7 Gt), and Russia (0.7 Gt). On a per-capita basis, Japan and Canada (12 t/cap) lead in front of the U.S. (11 t/cap). Although China’s per capita iron stock (2.2 t/cap) is only about 20−25% that of industrialized countries, due to its large population, it constitutes the second largest iron stock in use. India, which has a similar population multiplier, has about five times smaller iron stocks (0.4 t/cap) than China.

 

Fig 5 (reproduced from ES&T) Density-equalizing maps of iron stocks in 2005 in ore reserves (top) and in use (bottom).

The interesting thing to note in this map is that whereas the US has “depleted” its reserves on a per capita basis (top) it has a large stock of iron in use on which to draw (bottom). The same is true of Western Europe. South America has large reserves on which to draw as it develops. China appears to be half way through its iron accumulation phase (if the model is valid) and it is fairly obvious from which reserve it draws. The race between India and China starts with China looking down the home straight.

Africa has drawn the short straw. Per capita reserves are generally low and the continent has not accumulated significant stocks. If the estimated global reserves presented in this paper are correct, then Africa will not reach the same levels of development as other nations… at least not using iron.

Africa, India and Indonesia may struggle to reach there respective development goals, unless they get there acts together post-haste. What are they going to trade to accumulate the iron they need? Can they outbid China or the energy rich central Asian countries?

The decreasing IU for steel observed for many industrialized countries …could be explained by a tendency for per-capita iron stocks to flatten off at a certain point while GDP remains growing. Speculations about an absolute decoupling in steel demand, however, cannot be supported by this study: none of the analyzed countries shows a shrinking per-capita iron stock in use, which would be needed for long-term absolute decoupling of steel demand. Given the stock patterns observed, a more plausible scenario is that postindustrial societies still need to maintain and replace substantial iron stocks in use.

The observed stock patterns demonstrate that the opportunities for recycling and therefore for reducing resource depletion and GHG emissions change dramatically during a country’s evolution. The potential for recycling domestic scrap is very low in emerging market economies where stocks are growing rapidly, while industrialized countries can benefit from stocks … built up earlier.

The concept of a circular economy remains an illusion for emerging market economies.

Assuming the global population and its iron stock in use stabilize, the amount of iron units exiting the use phase would be as large as the amount of iron units entering use. It is therefore possible to envision a system of iron and steel management that is entirely based on secondary resources, using the built environment as the key mine of the future. Such a scenario would not only avoid primary resource exploitation and mining wastes (tailings), but it would also significantly reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in the iron and steel industry, mainly because the most energy- and CO2-intensive process, the blast furnace, could be avoided.

The authors close with cautions about over extrapolating these results. The style of economic development could change (eg less car use, rethinking priorities) and other materials may replace some of steels uses. However, the fundamental role that iron has played, and continues to play in current industrialization and development can not be ignored and needs to be considered in the areas of both climate and developmental policy.

A chilled future for solar power ?

The Climate Spectator has an article on research into a solar powered air cooling system which could help reduce the spiralling cost of network transmission expansion required to meet the growing summer peak loads created by air conditioning units - A chilling future for solar power.

Everyone seems pretty comfortable with the idea that the energy from the sun can be captured to heat stuff and create electricity. But what if we were able to use it to address one of Australia’s greatest needs: how to cool things down, particularly the air inside your home; and one of its greatest challenges – reducing peak loads on the network?

This is one of the ideas being developed by the CSIRO at its Energy Research Centre in Newcastle. And the technology – known as Solar Cooling – is now at the point of commercialisation. And it is so simple it can be bolted on to the solar hot water systems that are already so prevalent in suburbia – and add space heating in winter and cooling in summer to the hot water that is already delivered by the solar collectors.

The irony of this development is that it offers the opportunity for a renewable energy source to provide a solution for a problem it is often blamed for creating – rising electricity costs.
The reality is that the greatest component of rising energy bills is the cost of network upgrades, and the biggest reason for these is the growth in peak energy demand, driven largely by the rush to install household air conditioning systems, which now account for around 50 per cent of peak demand on some networks.

Indeed, such is the scale of the rollout of domestic air-con, and its impact on networks, that it now qualifies as the most heavily subsidised sector of the electricity grid – far greater than rooftop solar, or large-scale wind farms.

For every $1000 invested in an air-conditioning system, it is estimated that another $3000 is required to upgrade the network. That translates into an added cost of $100 per year on the electricity bills of those who either choose not to have air-con in their home, or who can’t afford it.

Reducing peak demand is one of the biggest challenges facing energy market operators. In Australia, it is estimated that one quarter of the nation’s electricity costs go to catering for around 40 hours of peak demand – those occasions of extreme temperatures when everyone turns on their air-con at the same time and when the electricity demand is nearly doubled. If this technology based around solar panels on the roof can be rolled out at scale, it could offer one of the best opportunities to significantly lower those peak loads and reduce the need to upgrade and expand networks and help flatten the anticipated spikes in domestic electricity bills.

The principle behind Solar Cooling systems being developed by the CSIRO is simply to integrate technologies that are already understood – the rooftop panels on the roof that heat the water, and which can then be used to heat air; a desiccant wheel to dry the air; and evaporative systems to cool the air.

Stephen White, the manager of the CSIRO’s Energy for Buildings division, says the advantage of this system is that it can operate at relatively low temperatures – 50°C to 70°C – which are common for solar hot water systems.

Incoming hot, moist, humid air is dehumidified using a desiccant such as a silica gel on a rotating wheel to create a dry air stream which is then cooled using an evaporative cooler. The desiccant absorbs the moisture from the air. This material is then stripped of moisture (regenerated) using solar heat.

The CSIRO believes that electricity costs could be reduced by half – and would be a much more efficient use of resources, because the solar collectors would be in use all year round, while a conventional air conditioner system might be in use for just 7 per cent of the time.
“We see it as three in one solar thermal product for the home – a solar hot water system, and space heating in winter, and cooling in summer when the sun is shining the hardest," Dr White says. “It matches very nicely." It is likely that these systems will be able to bolt on to already installed solar hot water systems.

The CSIRO has already developed a prototype called REDEcool which can be used in households and is now looking for a manufacturing partner to help refine the design, and the costs, for mass production. Dr White says the capital cost of the system will be more than the $1000 that people pay for the air-con systems they buy from shops, but it should be cheaper than the $4000 network cost.

Its the bubbles of nothing that make it something…

What is ocean acidification and how is it related to carbon dioxide in the atmosphere?

Alan Jones recently claimed that CO₂ is nothing, or as the SMH characterized it a bit of fizz that enlivens the brew.

The following simplified explanation is straight from the evil genius of  global warming swindler strongholds The Royal Society and The Annual Reviews of Marine Science.

Below is an equation and accompanying graph that describe the interaction of CO₂ and water. From the left, the equation shows CO₂ in the atmosphere in a dynamic equilibrium with CO₂ dissolved in water. This CO₂ then interacts with water to form carbonic acid which then dissociates (ie “breaks up”) releasing hydrogen ions (ie H⁺, ie acid) in two steps. Each of the double arrows means that the reaction proceeds in both the forward and reverse direction until an equilibrium is achieved (in theory). In practice an equilibrium may not be achieved (ie concentrations of all species may fluctuate slightly).

The graph depicts the relative concentrations of the three forms of inorganic carbon as a function of pH. The pH range for seawater is shown, which depends on the concentration of CO₂ over the ocean and the temperature of the water (among other factors). Another way of thinking about this diagram is to ask ;

“What happens if the concentration of CO₂ over the water increases?”

Mauno Loa is the atmospheric station with the longest continuous CO₂ record. Since 1990 pH in the ocean nearby has also been recorded and a strong correlation is seen between these adjacent sites. Note, these are not the longest time series measurements of pH.

Returning to the equation, if the CO_{2(atmosphere)} (on the left)  increases this will have the effect of “driving” the reaction to the right, first increasing the CO₂ dissolved in the water then the carbonic acid (H₂CO₃) then the bicarbonate etc… It should be clear from this equation that as the equilibrium is pushed to the right, the concentration of H⁺  and therefore the acidity increases. This shows up as a decrease in the value of pH. Note in passing that pH is a log scale (ie pH = –log[H⁺] where [ ] means concentration). The important point to note is that like the Richter scale a change of one unit represents an absolute change of 10 times magnitude (in this case in concentration).

In school we are all taught that pH 7 is “neutral” and that anything below this is acidic. The use of the word neutral does not mean “no effect”. It just means that at this pH the concentration of H⁺ and OH^- are equal. The solubility of carbonate species begins to increase before the pH reaches or drops below 7. In the figure below at a pH of ~8 the concentration of Ca ions (from CaCO₃ in water) is “only” ~ 120 mg/L but at pH ~ 7 this has increased to ~ 12 g/L (eyeballing this graph it is – if I’ve remembered right!).

The species each side of a double arrow can be further considered in detail, and each represents a process that can be related to a constant – the solubility product (Ksp) – which is mostly dependant on temperature. These constants are not affected by how people feel about them or who they vote for. All of the other chemical reactions/equilibria in the ocean can be described with similar equations. The practical upshot being that given accurate measurements of the current concentrations of the important chemical species, it is relatively simple to project the consequences of increased CO₂ concentrations on oceanic pH. There are far fewer uncertainties than experienced with atmospheric modeling.

This figure is the projected effect on the ocean for the next 1000 years as the oceans absorb a substantial amount of the CO₂ released by burning fossil fuels. Note that this is a simple box model representation of the whole ocean (ie global average effect). Local extremes in pH outside of the ranges shown here will occur.

What does this mean? The acidity of the ocean affects the formation of shells by interfering with the formation of Ca minerals used by many marine species. Corals and other organisms that use aragonite (a form of carbonate mineral with a higher solubility) are more susceptible to stress as a result. The reefs of the world in turn support numerous diverse species. In purely economic terms, they are an important fishery and recreational area. For example,

The World Resources Institute (Burke et al 2004) has estimated that in 2000, Caribbean coral reefs alone ‘provided annual net benefits in terms of fisheries, dive tourism, and shoreline protection services with an estimated value between US$3.1 billion and US$4.6 billion’ (about £2 000 million and £3 000 million, using the exchange rate in May 2005); and that the loss of income by 2015 from these degraded reefs may be several hundred million dollars per annum.

and,

Coastal reefs in Hawaii have been estimated to generate almost US$364 million each year in added value (Cesar et al 2002).

See a more detailed graphical version here.

There are winners and losers in this race - mostly losers - and what is not captured is the flow on affects as species abundances change. These stresses are on top of the stresses due to the already observed changes in ocean temperature.

One of the important debating reasons for being aware of ocean pH is that it is an independent effect of CO₂ that can not be accounted for by alternative global warming theories. IE, the anthropogenic global warming due to atmospheric CO₂ release model accounts for both temperature rise and pH changes. Alternative views (ie the sun did it) have to separately account for the pH changes.

I prefer Occam's Razor.

Ocean Acidification: The Other CO2 Problem, Annual Reviews of Marine Science.

Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, The Royal Society.

Fine tuning photons

Last month I did a rough cut and paste overview (using papers available via google scholar) on the topic of rectennas or nantennas finishing on the topic of the possible capture of infrared light for power generation. Now an article published last month in Science (Vol. 332 no. 6030 pp. 702-704 ) has demonstrated the capture of infrared radiation using nantennas constructed using silicon based semiconductors. While this is a significant advance, hold the champers. The fabricated device, while useful as a sensor, only converts ~0.01 % of the absorbed photons into a photocurrent over the wavelengths for which it is tuned. The authors suggest some methods to increase this to 2%. What is significant is that because it uses mature silicon technology devices could be fairly rapidly mass produced  IF the overall performance can be increased.
It's not solar nanvarna yet but… stay tuned!

Photodetection with Active Optical Antennas  (free pdf)

Mark W. Knight, Heidar Sobhani, Peter Nordlander and Naomi J. Halas

Nanoantennas are key optical components for light harvesting; photodiodes convert light into a current of electrons for photodetection. We show that these two distinct, independent functions can be combined into the same structure. Photons coupled into a metallic nanoantenna excite resonant plasmons, which decay into energetic, “hot” electrons injected over a potential barrier at the nanoantenna-semiconductor interface, resulting in a photocurrent. This dual-function structure is a highly compact, wavelength-resonant, and polarization-specific light detector, with a spectral response extending to energies well below the semiconductor band edge.

More coverage at the Royal Society of Chemistry.

There's something about the mention of hot electrons that gets the chemist in me a bit excited.

Mathew 7:16

The Drum at the ABC thoughtfully posted a part of the adjournment speech by Dr Peter Phelps, Member of the New South Wales Legislative Council. I admit having to recheck the post date of the article after having read it… but no, it wasn’t April.

Ignoring the leper's bell on climate change

2 June 2011

From the adjournment debate, New South Wales Legislative Council 1 June 2011:

I comment in this place on the latest adventures in the great global warming swindle that is gripping our nation and most of the formerly civilised world. I will assume that most people know that I am an historian by trade and I come from a time when, at universities, the humanities displayed a healthy scepticism for the self-assured absolutism of the sciences. However, nowadays it seems that the sciences have been corrupted by enough government money and political correctness to have them operating in parallel with their socialist brothers in the humanities. Government money is given to agitate for specific ends. Why are we surprised when the ocean acidification project suddenly finds that - guess what? - oceans are acidifying.

But we should not be so surprised that the contemporary science debate has become so debased. At the heart of many scientists - but not all scientists - lies the heart of a totalitarian planner.

I think we can see where this is going…

One can see them now, beavering away, alone, unknown, in their laboratories. And now, through the great global warming swindle they can influence policy, they can set agendas, they can reach into everyone's lives; they can, like Lenin, proclaim "what must be done".

And it is not a new phenomenon. We should not forget that some of the strongest supporters of totalitarian regimes in the last century have been scientists and, in return, the State lavishes praise, money and respectability on them.

Indeed, how different are today's global warming urgers from those in pre-war Britain, who looked forward to a Britain that would "be centralised and totalitarian"? Those who ignore the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them. The present idolatry for pseudoscience, the claims of settled science and of a scientific consensus - these are the leper's bell announcing the approach of the would-be totalitarian. The bell was not heeded in the 1930s. It should be heeded now.

I’m not sure what he is implying above where he says “most of the formerly civilised world”. Is this some new shibboleth?

Previously the good Dr got into some trouble for this comment,

"You don't get news stories by trying to change perceptions, you get them by reinforcing stereotypes".

Should you wish to have your intelligence insulted again, you can contact him here.

Crikey has some background from 2007.

Turning solar towards the sun

A recent news article heralds a simple device to increase solar panels collection ability without using electricity.

Teen's invention makes solar panels 40% more efficient

The Vancouver Sun, June 5, 2011

Just 19, student inventor and entrepreneur Eden Full … recently received the Scotiabank EcoLiving Student Leadership Award for her invention, the SunSaluter.

"It was a very simple and inexpensive invention, yet it has a huge impact," said Green Living chief executive and president Laurie Simmonds. "Increasing and optimizing energy by 40 per cent — I mean, this is just remarkable that this young woman has done this."

Designed to increase the efficiency of solar panels by orienting them to always be perpendicular to the sun's rays, Full's device is driven by simple bi-metallic strips that expand during the day and contract as they cool at night.

As a result, it costs much less than comparable, motor-driven tracking systems and can be built using simple components available in developing countries.

According to Full, this is important for creating a system that can be sustainably maintained by the people who use it.

And from the entry posted at the competition website.

The SunSaluter: Maximizing Solar Energy Collection for $10

Dell Social Innovation Competition Website, Submitted By  efull,  Feb 13, 2011

The SunSaluter is a $10 solar panel rotating tracker that optimizes output by up to 40% through tilting the panel perpendicular to the sun. It is a simple mechanism using bamboo (or metal when used industrially), recyclable metal strips and the physical imbalance of the panel itself. Because of its basic assembly, The SunSaluter requires less maintenance than a traditional tracking system and does not use electricity as a motorized one would. In August 2010, two prototypes were deployed in Mpala, Kenya. Monthly reports indicate that The SunSaluters are improving the lives of one thousand Kenyans.

Large-scale solar panel manufacturers as well as emerging markets are the key beneficiaries of our tracking technology. Despite their economic status, the bottom of the pyramid spends $500 billion per year on energy to meet their cooking, lighting, communications, and general needs. Killing 1.6 million people per year, current energy sources in the third world are unreliable and hazardous to people's health. In established solar panel markets all over the world, there is a definite need for clean, cheap and efficient energy, possible with tracking. The SunSaluter is the only solution at present to fulfill this niche in the market.

Well she’s not afraid to blow her own trumpet, but it isn’t actually “the only” solution. This idea reminded me of a New Inventors episode some years ago where a just slightly more elaborate, but still non electrically powered device was presented.

Hydrasolar

New Inventors, Season 2, 2005, invented by Michael Patterson

The Hydrasolar is a solar tracking device, for solar panels, that does not rely on electric motors or computers to track the sun.

It is a new type of ‘passive’ solar tracker that uses a combination of direct sunlight (radiant heat) and shade (ambient air temp) to affect the thermal expansion and contraction of a liquid to make the solar panel rotate. The expansion of the liquid causes the panel to rotate toward the west during the day and the contraction causes the panel to rotate back towards the east at night, ready for the morning sunrise. The simple hydraulic system, ensures that the solar panel is angled towards the sun from dawn through to dusk - all year round.

You can see how the device works in the photo below taken from Make Online.

The bi-metallic strip version from Ms Full depends for part of its action on the weight of the solar panel, whereas this device does not.

Floating LNG: The Final Frontier Of The Gas Age

Shell recently announced that their Prelude floating LNG project off north west Western Australia has passed another milestone, with the $US12.6 billion ($11.8bn) project receiving final investment approval.

Prelude is expected to produce 3.6 million tonnes per annum of LNG, as well as 1.3 million tonnes of condensate and 400,000 tonnes of LPG.

The facility is scheduled to begin production in 2016. The gas will be cooled by cold water pumped from about 150m below the ocean’s surface - allowing around 50,000 m3 of cold seawater each hour to cool the gas.



The project will be the world’s floating LNG development and the facility will be the largest floating structure ever built. The vessel will be built by South Korea's Samsung Heavy Industries. At 488 metres long, 74 metres wide and 600,000-tonne in weight it will be longer than four soccer fields laid end-to-end and will be six times heavier than the world's largest aircraft carrier.

The vessel will be permanently moored about 200km off the coast for its 25 years of production and is designed to withstand severe category 5 cyclones (or a “one-in-10,000-year" tropical cyclone, as Shell executive director Malcolm Brinded put it).

Shell has self-insured the project, so its not clear what the view of maritime insurers is of the likelihood of the project suffering significant damage during its lifetime is.



In Australia we’ve seen onshore natural gas largely depleted, near offshore natural gas well developed (the north west shelf LNG operation has now been in operation for decades and long-stalled projects like Gorgon are now well underway), a boom in coal seam gas and emerging interest in exploiting shale gas (local producers seem to view speculation that US shale gas production will undermine Australian LNG export markets in Asia as unfounded, notwithstanding the strong Australian dollar) and biogas.

Research by the CSIRO in 2008 found that up to half Australia's natural gas resources (140 trillion cubic feet) could not be developed because they were too remote to be connected to onshore processing plants.

Floating LNG platforms remove this barrier and would seem to be the final stage of our entry into what has been dubbed by some (including the IEA [pdf]) as "The Gas Age" (I guess you could view the fossil fuel era as an act in 3 parts, similar to the era of the dinosaurs, with the coal age being analagous to the Triassic period, the oil age to the Jurassic and the gas age echoing the Cretaceous, with the end of the era approaching).



By adopting the offshore floating LNG solution Shell hopes to also substantially reduce the time and cost of the project development phase.

Global LNG demand is expected to double this decade and the introduction of floating storage and regasification vessels in recent years has enabled fast entry of new buyers such as Argentina, Brazil, Kuwait and Dubai in recent years, with Thailand and Singapore soon to join the club and Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and possibly the Philippines following along behind them.

Shell is already looking at a number of other locations for floating LNG projects, including the Greater Sunrise project in East Timor, and projects in Indonesia, Cyprus, East Africa and South America. Other companies are also interested in floating LNG with the BBC claiming Flex LNG and Hoegh LNG hoping to make final investment decisions shortly on projects in Papua New Guinea.

Jarand Rystad, founder of a Norway-based research consultancy for the oil industry says there are up to 160 gas fields where floating LNG could be applicable worldwide over the next decade.

The prospect of a number of floating LNG developments has Darwin excited, with the town hoping to be the base for servicing Prelude and up to 10 additional platforms over time.

The 10 platforms figure may have emerged from a statement from Samsung Heavy Industries estimating the size of the market last year.

Besides the PNG projects mentioned earlier, Woodside have been pushing for a floating LNG development for the Sunrise development between Australia and East Timor, and there has been some speculation that Woodside's Browse development could avoid opposition to plans to build an onshore LNG plant in the Kimberly region. There has also been speculation that Inpex's Abadi and Ichthys projects could be candidates.

Cross posted from Peak Energy.