Happiness and Power

One of the common assertions around is that no combination of renewables can power a consumerist society. This may be true. Its a testable hypothesis. But is that the point? Surely the question is are we happy? And in fact Economics is (or should be) about the study of happiness, not just the study of GDP growth (consumption), its just that among some punters GDP/capita is equated with happiness. The "invisible hand" will "lift all ships on a rising tide" (or some such). In the past few years research suggests that above a certain threshold, increases in GDP/capita have a negligible effect on perceptions or feelings of happiness.

The Economist had a little graph late last year displaying this very phenomena, although they couldn't help but change it to a form more aesthetically pleasing to them.

Shorter PIA NO. 2

Continuing my rough dissection of papers from the special edition of the Urban Planner (Australian Oil Vulnerability), the first paper gives an overview and assesment of the Australian transport sector, it oil use and some suggestions for reducing oil consumption. The theme binding these two papers is Australian reliance on private transportation. 

The impact of rising oil prices on the transport sector
Peter Rickwood, pages:243 — 252

Abstract

Oil is the dominant motorized transportation fuel used in most countries, including Australia. Many other oil derived products and services are important to the functioning of the Australian economy. This paper provides background information about oil consumption in Australia, and reviews the available information on price elasticities for the major oil end-uses.  Reducing fuel used for private motoring, and preparing emergency adaptation plans to cope with sudden oil price spikes are identified as the major areas on which planners should focus.

This paper does not, for example, discuss laudable end-goals such as decarbonizing our economy, or drastically reorganizing our cities, because planners have limited influence over economic policy, and because less ambitious policies such as congestion charging are still contentious and difficult to put in place.

After transport (72%), mining (8.5%), chemicals/ lubricants (7.1%), and agriculture (4.8%) account for most remaining oil consumption.

Road transport (private and commercial) is responsible for 76% of transport-related oil consumption, and aviation 17%, with only small amounts from rail (2%) and water (5%) transport.

We can calculate that private car-based personal transport is currently responsible for ~35% of all oil consumption in Australia, commercial trucking 20%, aviation 13%, and numerous other non-transport sources account for the remaining 32%.

Car-based personal transport (35% of total oil)
Summary: Plateauing per-capita vehicle-kilometres travelled (VKT) will allow per-capita fuel consumption to decline, but population growth will continue to increase total demand for oil.

Apart from increasing population, there are two other trends that have been responsible for steady growth in oil consumption from passenger vehicles: increasing car ownership; and a corresponding increase in percapita VKT (due to increased access to cars and lower occupancy ratios, as well as other factors). Partly offsetting this has been a steady increase in vehicle fuel efficiency.

Commercial trucking (20% of total oil)
Summary: Fuel use largely driven by economic growth.

Aviation (13% of total oil)
Summary: Rapid growth expected to continue under ‘business as usual’, where incomes continue to rise and fuel costs do not increase substantially. Downside risks posed by poor economic conditions and/or significant increases in fuel costs are substantial.

Oil and climate change

David Suzuki: an elder’s vision

NZ publication "Pundit" has an article by Claire Brown on a recent speaking tour of Australia and New Zealand by David Suzuki - David Suzuki: an elder’s vision.

David Suzuki says by ignoring warnings of over-consumption and its dire consequences, we are following 99.9999% of our fellow animal species to extinction; and the Greens convene a cross-party economic conference, populated mostly by Greens

David Suzuki chuckles, remembering a sign he saw on a shop door (“no animals allowed”) and parents’ reaction when he told their children that’s what they are: just animals. “Boy, were they pissed off … we don’t like to be told that,” he comments dryly. He told the shop owner, too, who didn’t get the joke.

Asked to speak to the working title ‘a sustainable economy for the world’, he says he’s a scientist, not an economist — and, more crucially, what he terms an ‘elder’. So instead, he talks about what we need, not want, to hear, which was animals: frogs, and ostriches, and us — the naked ape.